As much as half the world’s water supply is being stolen, with agriculture responsible for much of that, according to a new study. Writing in the journal Nature Sustainability, an international team of researchers says thieves steal between 30% and 50% of the planet’s water supply every year. This theft occurs when people and companies obtain water illegally, often for agricultural purposes. That could mean getting treated water that should be paid for free of charge or obtaining water in ways that go against environmental guidelines.

Agriculture by far consumes most of the world’s water, about 70% of it. To help better understand the portion of that percentage that may be associated with water theft, the study “provides a conceptual framework and modelling approach designed to improve understanding of both individual and institutional barriers to water theft.” The framework is based on examinations of the water use surrounding three crops: marijuana in California, strawberries in Spain, and cotton in Australia.

Although the study calls for tougher penalties for stealing water, the authors note that where people understand water regulations and believe everyone else is obeying the rules, water theft is much lower. “Water crises constitute a challenge for humanity,” says the report, urging authorities to recognize the urgency of the situation. “When regulators fail to understand the value of water, inadequate prescribed penalties increase the risk of theft.”

“Ongoing water shortages occur on all continents, increasingly compounded by climate change,” write the researchers in their published paper. Global water demand will grow significantly over the next two decades in all the three components, industry, domestic and agriculture. Industrial and domestic demand will grow faster than agricultural demand but demand for agriculture will remain the largest. The growth in non-agricultural demand will exceed the growth in agricultural demand. The food demand by 2050 will increase by 60%, and this increment will require more arable land and intensification of production. This will translate into increased use of water.

The study asserts that there can be no substitute for adequate water supplies in the first place, a challenging issue in many places. The authors of the study look forward to a technological assist as monitoring and sensors become better able to detect water theft when it occurs. Detection, however, without more robust local enforcement is meaningless. And adequately guarding water supplies that span multiple jurisdictions will require prioritization and stronger cooperation between local governments.