One patient can spread the virus in 406 people in 30 days: ICMR study
In a recent study by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), it has found that if preventive measures are not implemented thoroughly, a COVID-19 patient is able to infect 406 people in the time period of 30 days. The report was mentioned by the Union Health Ministry on Tuesday.
Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Health, Lav Agarwal said in a statement that, with preventive measures such as social distancing and lockdown in place, the possibility of the infection can be reduced to an average of two-and-a-half persons per patient in the same period.
Referring to the ICMR study, Agarwal said the current ‘R0’ or R naught for the coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4. ‘R0’ is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It tells the average number of people who will catch a disease from one infected person.
Agarwal stated that “If we take the ‘R0’ to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days, if the preventive measures are not in place, but if exposure of people in social areas is reduced by 75 per cent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons.”
He specifically highlighted the importance of the ongoing 21-day lockdown and social distancing. He also appealed to the people to adopt social distancing and follow the lockdown order, saying this is a very important intervention in terms of coronavirus management.
Responding to a query on speculations on social media regarding the extension of the nationwide lockdown, Agarwal said, “Whenever a decision is taken, it will be informed. Till a decision is officially communicated, please refrain from speculation.”
Three classified Categories
Describing about the arrangements to fight the pandamic, Agarwal said that they have classified hospitals and facilities for management of COVID-19 patients in three categories.
Mild and suspected cases will be kept in Dedicated COVID Care Centres which can be makeshift facilities or government or private facilities like schools, hostels, stadiums, hotels among others.
“Then there will be Dedicated COVID Health Centres where clinically moderate level of serious patients will be monitored and such facilities can be a full hospital or dedicated block in a hospital.
“Besides there will be dedicated COVID Hospitals which will provide comprehensive care to severe and critical cases. Again such facilities can be an entire hospital or a dedicated block and they should have fully equipped ICU facilities, ventilators and beds with oxygen support,” he said.
About the containment measures implemented so far, he said cluster containment strategies and action plans for outbreaks, which are amenable to management, are producing required results in some areas like Agra, Gautam Budh Nagar, Pathanamthitta (Kerala), Bhilwara, East Delhi and Mumbai.
These strategies are also being adopted in other coronavirus-affected districts, he said.
He further said that under the concept of smart cities, technology was being used successfully in Pune, Surat, Bengaluru and Tumakuru for surveillance, monitoring quarantine facilities, tracking the health of suspected patients and their contacts, training and for predictive analysis using heat maps among others.
Head of Epidemiology and Communicable diseases at ICMR Raman R Gangakhedkar said that 17,006 tests have been conducted so far.
“11,795 tests were done yesterday, out of which 2,530 tests were done in private sector,” he said, adding 136 government labs are functioning in the country as of now and 59 private labs have been given approval for conducting tests for COVID-19.
Agarwal further said that the Health Ministry is in close coordination with the Ministry of Pharmaceuticals, proper matching has been done over the national requirement of hydroxychloroquine and added there is sufficient quantity of drugs for management for coronavirus in the country and as and when needed.
He also informed that Indian Railways has converted 2,500 coaches for 40,000 isolation beds. On an average, 375 coaches are being converted in a day. The work is being carried out at 133 locations in the country. We want to remind that the idea of converting coaches into isolation centers is first shared by Mr. Amitabh Bachchan on his social media.